❄️ Happy Holidays! Today's newsletter is a lengthy—but worthwhile—1,255 words, a 5-min read.

📝 Author’s Note: This will be the last newsletter of the of the year! We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan 8—hopefully with a fresh batch of USCIS data covering through Sep 2025, and certainly with a fresh batch of Lawfully data covering through Dec 2025.

Until then, I hope you all have a happy and healthy holiday season!

 📅 On the Pod: If you’re going to listen to one more immigration podcast before the holiday break, make it’s our latest with Kara Lynum—former Acting General Counsel at DHS.

It’s the audio recording from our Nov 12 Immigration Insiders meeting, where Kara gave her POV on the future outlook of several key Trump-era immigration policies, including:

• The 'Weighted Selection' rule for the H-1B Lottery

• The rule that will end 'Duration of Status' for F-1 visa holders

• The new interim final rule ending automatic EAD extensions for pending renewals

• The $100k H-1B fee proclamation

• & more

1 big thing: A free tool for global mobility teams & law firms to strategize for the weighted H-1B lottery

78 days.

That’s roughly how long GM teams and law firms have to prepare for the upcoming registration process for the H-1B lottery.

Why it matters: USCIS is currently working to finalize the proposed 'Weighted Selection' rule in time for the FY 2027 H-1B lottery (starting in March 2026).

This would replace the randomized lottery system that has existed for over 20 years and introduce a completely new reality for companies.

With a weighted selection, there will be real strategy involved in increasing selection odds—but that strategy will require companies to consider significant changes to sponsorship policies and current best practices.

Currently, it’s expected that the final rule will be published by or before late February 2026.

While some experts anticipate the rule will be litigated, there’s a high probability it will still be in effect for the lottery—leaving GM teams and law firms only a few months to prepare for a very real change.

But not preparing adequately is leaving a huge opportunity on the table.

So we created a free tool to help GM teams understand exactly how they can increase selection odds for their registrants:

Click here to access the H-1B Weighted Lottery Simulator

Why we built this: There have always been two key pieces to the H-1B lottery puzzle—the government and the market. Both are set to shift in a major way this year, and we want to give companies better tools to prepare for the scenarios at play.

How Market Shifts Could Impact H-1B Cap Outcomes:

Background: On Monday, Andrew Kreighbaum and his colleague at Bloomberg reported new and exclusive data on how several companies—primarily IT staffing companies—are most impacted by the $100k H-1B fee going into next year’s lottery.

I’m quoted in that piece projecting a dip in next year’s H-1B lottery registrations of as high as 30–50% compared to this year. In real numbers, that’s 100,000–170,000 fewer registrations.

In the Bloomberg piece, they cite that IT staffing companies started pulling back on the H-1B lottery over the last two years. This is corroborated by a separate analysis by Stuart Anderson in Forbes. That pullback was likely a significant factor in registrations decreasing by 27% between FY 2025 and FY 2026.

I’ve been talking with GM leaders at top H-1B filers—and the immigration attorneys representing those companies—for months, and very few are preparing seriously for this coming change.

I don’t blame them, with everything else going on.

But here’s the thing GM teams and law firms are not planning enough for: we’re entering a potentially very short window where individual company selection rates could be as high as 80% with the right registration strategy.

For context, reported averages were around 35% last year under the randomized system.

How the Weighted Lottery Changes the H-1B Cap Process:

1. Pre-Registration: Employers determine the SOC code, work location, and corresponding prevailing wage level (I–IV) under the OEWS system based on the proffered wage they intend to pay each applicant. If multiple worksites or pay ranges exist, the employer must choose the lowest corresponding wage level.
   

2. Registration: The new online registration form will include a checkbox or dropdown for wage level and certification of a bona fide job offer. No proof is uploaded.
   

3. Selection: Under the rule, each unique beneficiary is entered once, but the entry is counted more than once based on the prevailing wage level: Level I = 1 entry, Level II = 2, Level III = 3, Level IV = 4. If multiple employers register the same person, USCIS uses the lowest wage level submitted to calculate entries.
   

4. Submission & Adjudication: When filing a petition for a selected applicant, employers must submit an LCA showing the same SOC, wage, and location as in registration. USCIS verifies the wage still meets or exceeds the selected level. Lowering the wage level via an amendment or extension filed later can lead to denial or revocation.

Potential Strategies to Increase Selection Odds Under a Weighted H-1B Lottery:

This new process changes the game theory: Many practitioners may (and should) consider ways to increase the prevailing wage level of the individuals they register in the lottery.

Here are a few examples of how that could be done:

• Pay applicants a higher real salary to increase their associated prevailing wage level.

• Use remote work to place applicants in locations where the home office carries a higher prevailing wage level.

• Relocate applicants to company offices situated in areas where it’s possible to pay higher prevailing wage.

• Reclassify applicants under SOC codes with higher prevailing wage levels, provided the role changes don’t require major salary increases.

• Delay registration for Level I wage applicants until a higher salary can be justified, using a temporary or permanent H-1B alternative in the meantime (e.g., L-1, TN, E, H-1B1, O-1, or F-1 OPT/STEM OPT).

The caveat: Because this rule likely won’t be finalized and announced as implemented until just weeks or months before the lottery, most of the market won’t have time to adjust or deploy new strategies to improve their odds.

Before we wrap up: One key takeaway from my conversation with Jonathan Micale—former Operations Executive at USCIS—from our Immigration Insiders meeting on Oct 15…

I asked whether USCIS is already building the operational infrastructure to implement this rule.

His response: “Yes, teams are already planning. You need new fields, training, testing, and deployment before cap season.”

The bottom line: This isn’t a thought exercise anymore—it’s very likely the new reality for the H-1B cap. That means practitioners should start planning now to:

• Get your SOCs, worksites, and OEWS levels nailed down for every role you expect to register.

• Pressure-test what it would take—legitimately—to move candidates to PW Levels III or IV.

• Decide where you can shift worksites or lean on remote without any threats to compliance.

• Build a bridge plan for roles that can’t move up this cycle.

We highly recommend you coordinate with your immigration counsel on strategizing for the H-1B lottery.

Lawfully is not a law firm. No information provided by Lawfully shall be construed as legal advice.

But we are putting together complimentary reports mapping out individual selection outcome scenarios—and possible strategies to increase selection odds—for our Lawfully Intelligence subscribers.

If you’re interested, email me at [email protected] and I can set you up with a subscription.

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📩 That’s it for this week! I want to hear your feedback and questions, so drop me a note anytime at [email protected].

See you in 2026!